What to know
This week's ensemble predicts that the number of new weekly laboratory-confirmed influenza hospital admissions will remain stable or have an uncertain trend nationally, with 160 to 3,200 new laboratory-confirmed influenza hospital admissions likely reported in the week ending June 10, 2023.
Interpretation of forecasts
- Reported and forecasted new influenza hospitalizations as of May 16, 2023.
- This week, 17 modeling groups contributed 18 forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
- Ensemble forecasts combine forecasts from diverse models into one forecast. They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance for previous influenza and COVID-19 forecasting efforts, but even the ensemble forecasts may not reliably predict rapid changes.
- The figure shows the number of new confirmed influenza hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from September 1 through May 13 and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions per week over the next 4 weeks, through June 10. Hospitals are required to report laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations to HHS Protect daily. COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs has additional details on this guidance.
State Forecasts
State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new influenza hospital admissions per week for the next 4 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of new influenza hospital admissions per week between states and only forecasts included in the ensemble are shown. Plots of the state-level ensemble forecasts and the underlying data can be downloaded below.
Additional forecast data and information about submitting forecasts are available.