What to know
Interpretation of forecasts
- Reported and forecasted new influenza hospitalizations as of February 21, 2023.
- This week, 18 modeling groups contributed 19 forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
- Ensemble forecasts combine forecasts from diverse models into one forecast. They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance for previous influenza and COVID-19 forecasting efforts, but even the ensemble forecasts may not reliably predict rapid changes.
- The figure shows the number of new confirmed influenza hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from September 1 through February 18 and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions per week over the next 2 weeks, through March 4. Hospitals are required to report laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations to HHS Protect daily. COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs has additional details on this guidance.
State Forecasts
State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new influenza hospital admissions per week for the next 2 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of new influenza hospital admissions per week between states and only forecasts included in the ensemble are shown. Plots of the state-level ensemble forecasts and the underlying data can be downloaded below.
Additional forecast data and information about submitting forecasts are available.