Purpose
This week's ensemble predicts that the number of new weekly laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions will remain stable or have an uncertain trend nationally, with 9,500 to 29,000 laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions likely reported in the week ending January 27, 2024.
Interpretation of forecasts
- Reported and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions as of January 10, 2024
- This week, 26 modeling groups contributed 31 forecasts that were eligible for inclusion in the ensemble forecasts for at least one jurisdiction. Contributing teams are listed below.
- Ensemble forecasts combine forecasts from diverse models into one forecast. They have been among the most reliable forecasts in performance for previous influenza and COVID-19 forecasting efforts, but even the ensemble forecasts may not reliably predict rapid changes.
- The figure shows the number of new laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions reported in the United States each week from September 1 through January 6 and forecasted new influenza hospital admissions per week for this week and the next 2 weeks, through January 27. Hospitals are required to report daily laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations to HHS Protect. COVID-19 Guidance for Hospital Reporting and FAQs has additional details on this guidance.
State Forecasts
State-level forecasts show the predicted number of new laboratory confirmed influenza hospital admissions per week for this week and the next 2 weeks by state. Each state forecast figure uses a different scale due to differences in the number of new influenza hospital admissions per week between states and only forecasts included in the ensemble are shown. Plots of the state-level ensemble forecasts and the underlying data can be downloaded below.
Additional forecast data and information about submitting forecasts are available.